Dr Jim Walker: Fixture cull plan puts cart before the horse

Last month, I wrote about the need to rethink where prize-money is being directed in our sport. Too much is concentrated at the top end and not enough is trickling down to owners and horses in the bottom ranks. We all know how training costs have exploded in the last few years as well as BHA fees, jockey fees and other expenses. That affects smaller owners much more than those in tier one with ten-plus horses in training.

As a result, these owners, especially individuals, are exiting the sport. Shared ownership is compensating but not enough. According to data held by the ROA, our owner numbers have fallen by 14% in the last five years. That is the source of the crisis.

Meanwhile, compared to the ten-year average, Flat horses in training are down 4.6% while National Hunt horses have dropped 12%. When combined with foal-crop declines, both real and forecast, the conclusion reached by the BHA is that racing fixtures must be cut by 2027 at the latest. Under various scenarios, hundreds of Flat and jump races disappear from the programme to satisfy projections that will raise the average field size to a level considered appropriate by, well, someone.

In other words, hundreds of opportunities for owners to win prize-money will vanish. That is the quickest way to turn a 14% decline in owners into a rout. Racehorse and foal numbers will follow suit.

Part of the BHA’s argument is that we are going to end up with smaller field sizes that benefit no one, least of all betting turnover and the levy. Leaving aside the question of whether the regulator of the industry should be worried about bookmakers’ profitability, this pessimistic – almost fatalistic – view of racehorse numbers and what has to be done to address them is beginning to make economists look like optimists (believe me, that is a first).

In my view, the BHA is putting the cart before the horse. What racing needs to counteract the foal crop and racehorse population decline is more owners. Giving them fewer opportunities to win prize-money, or even race at all, will guarantee that there will be a further precipitous drop in ownership with all that implies for the future horse population and foal crop. It will be a self-fulfilling plunge into the abyss.

The question the BHA should be asking itself is: how do we ensure that there are more owners coming into the sport and how do we stop the current exodus? The answer is obvious: increase prize-money.

In my view, the decision to continue or discontinue race fixtures should be decided by the market, not bureaucrats. It might well be that by raising minimum values for each class of race – let’s say by £2,000 – will force some racecourses out of business. That would be sad, but a business that requires the biggest contributors to the industry to take the hit when it cannot run its operations effectively or profitably is not worth saving.

So how can an economist, especially one who believes in the free market, argue that a regulated increase in prize-money is a way of embracing market forces? Simple. The unambiguous evidence from declining ownership numbers is that the current price fixed by the regulator is incorrect. Prize-money is too low.

Would a £2,000 increase in minimum values in Classes 4, 5 and 6 solve the problem?

I don’t know, but the market will tell us given time. That is better than rushing into an irreversible decision on fixture reductions that could easily result in the unintended consequence of shrinking the sport dramatically.

Racecourses will undoubtedly scream and shout about this suggestion, but it would be short-term pain for long-term gain. Doing nothing about race purses will ensure continued shrinkage across the sport, including numbers of trainers, jockeys, stable staff and the whole support foundation.

As a stakeholder, the ROA is bound to take an optimistic approach to the problems faced by the industry. That optimistic approach requires more owners, which means addressing the losses we all face with each new season (only 690 horses out of almost 17,000 that ran in 2025 covered their costs).

No one is demanding that every horse turns a profit but a reduction in the cost bleed would be an important, positive first step. Over to you, Lord Allen.